Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Preprints, Working Papers, ... Year :

Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR

(1) , (1) , (1) , (1)
1

Abstract

We study the effect of an emerging virus mutation on the evolution of an epidemic, inspired by the appearanceof the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. We show that if the new variant is markedly more infective than theexisting ones the epidemic can resurge immediately. The vaccination of the population plays a crucial role inthe evolution of the epidemic. When the older (and more vulnerable) layers of the population are protected,the new infections concern mainly younger people, resulting into fewer hospitalisations and a reduced stress onthe health system. We study also the effects of vacations, partially effective vaccines and vaccination strategiesbased on epidemic-awareness. An important finding concerns vaccination deniers: their atttude may lead to aprolonged wave of epidemic and an increased number of hospital admissions.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
delta 20210713.pdf (1.51 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)

Dates and versions

in2p3-03291972 , version 1 (22-07-2021)

Identifiers

  • HAL Id : in2p3-03291972 , version 1

Cite

Gilberto M. Nakamura, Stéphane Plaszczynski, Basile Grammaticos, Mathilde Badoual. Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR. 2021. ⟨in2p3-03291972⟩
0 View
1 Download

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More