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Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR

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We study the effect of an emerging virus mutation on the evolution of an epidemic, inspired by the appearanceof the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2. We show that if the new variant is markedly more infective than theexisting ones the epidemic can resurge immediately. The vaccination of the population plays a crucial role inthe evolution of the epidemic. When the older (and more vulnerable) layers of the population are protected,the new infections concern mainly younger people, resulting into fewer hospitalisations and a reduced stress onthe health system. We study also the effects of vacations, partially effective vaccines and vaccination strategiesbased on epidemic-awareness. An important finding concerns vaccination deniers: their atttude may lead to aprolonged wave of epidemic and an increased number of hospital admissions.
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in2p3-03291972 , version 1 (22-07-2021)


  • HAL Id : in2p3-03291972 , version 1


Gilberto M. Nakamura, Stéphane Plaszczynski, Basile Grammaticos, Mathilde Badoual. Modelling the effect of virulent variants with SIR. 2021. ⟨in2p3-03291972⟩
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